Keyword search (4,164 papers available)

"Markov Chain Monte Carlo" Keyword-tagged Publications:

Title Authors PubMed ID
1 Development and performance assessment of a new opensource Bayesian inference R platform for building energy model calibration Hou D; Zhan D; Wang L; Hassan IG; Sezer N; 37936825
ENCS
2 Development of a Bayesian inference model for assessing ventilation condition based on CO2 meters in primary schools Hou D; Wang LL; Katal A; Yan S; Zhou LG; Wang V; Vuotari M; Li E; Xie Z; 36035815
ENCS
3 Identification of point source emission in river pollution incidents based on Bayesian inference and genetic algorithm: Inverse modeling, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis Zhu Y; Chen Z; Asif Z; 34380214
ENCS

 

Title:Identification of point source emission in river pollution incidents based on Bayesian inference and genetic algorithm: Inverse modeling, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis
Authors:Zhu YChen ZAsif Z
Link:https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34380214/
DOI:10.1016/j.envpol.2021.117497
Publication:Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)
Keywords:Genetic algorithmMarkov chain Monte CarloPoint source identificationRiver pollution incidentsSensitivity analysis
PMID:34380214 Category: Date Added:2021-08-12
Dept Affiliation: ENCS
1 Department of Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Concordia University, Montreal, H3G 1M8, Canada.
2 Department of Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Concordia University, Montreal, H3G 1M8, Canada. Electronic address: zhichen@bcee.concordia.ca.

Description:

Identification of pollution point source in rivers is strenuous due to accidental chemical spills or unmanaged wastewater discharges. It is crucial to take physical characteristics into account in the estimation of pollution sources. In this study, an integrated inverse modeling framework is developed to identify a point source of accidental water pollution based on the contaminant concentrations observed at monitoring sites in time series. The modeling approach includes a Markov chain Monte Carlo method based on Bayesian inference (Bayesian-MCMC) inverse model and a genetic algorithm (GA) inverse model. Both inverse models can estimate the pollution sources, including the emission mass quantity, release time, and release position in an accidental river pollution event. The developed model is first tested for a hypothetical case with field river conditions. The results show that the source parameters identified by the Bayesian-MCMC inverse model are very close to the true values with relative errors of 0.02% or less; the GA inverse model also works with relative errors in the range of 2%-7%. Additionally, the uncertainties associated with model parameters are analyzed based on global sensitive analysis (GSA) in this study. It is also found that the emission mass of pollution source positively correlates with the dispersion coefficient and the river cross-sectional area, whereas the flow velocity significantly affects release position and release time. A real case study in the Fen River is further conducted to test the applicability of the developed inverse modeling approach. Results confirm that the Bayesian-MCMC model performs better than the GA model in terms of accuracy and stability for the field application. The findings of this study would support decision-making during emergency responses to river pollution incidents.





BookR developed by Sriram Narayanan
for the Concordia University School of Health
Copyright © 2011-2026
Cookie settings
Concordia University